ChinaNow
William Barcelona, Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Jasper Hoek, and Eva Van Leemput
William Barcelona, Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Jasper Hoek, and Eva Van Leemput
ChinaNow is a real-time, alternative measure of Chinese real GDP designed to capture China’s business cycle dynamics that are not readily observable in the official GDP data. We use a dynamic factor model (DFM) that draws on a broad set of high-frequency indicators that are informative about the Chinese economy and its business cycle.
2025:Q3 Real GDP Growth (YoY)
ChinaNow: 4.9%
Official GDP: 4.8%
We provide quarterly updates:
Last update: October 20, 2025
Next update: mid-January, 2026
For a detailed description of the data and methodology, please see our paper.
What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China
*The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the view of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System.